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Perbandingan Metode Penanganan Data Hilang Dan Peramalan Harga Telur Ayam Ras Dengan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Aeverage
Missing Data; Forecasting; Linear Interpolation; Simple Moving Average; ARIMA Fluctuations in the price of broiler eggs can have an impact on decreasing people's purchasing power, so a form of price control through forecasting is needed. The existence of missing data in broiler egg price data can interfere with the accuracy of forecasting results. This research is carried out in two stages. The first stage is handling missing data. Missing data handling is done by comparing two methods, namely the linear interpolation method and the simple moving average (SMA) method. The second stage is forecasting with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. The objectives of this study are to handle missing data on the data of broiler egg prices with linear interpolation and SMA methods, evaluate the results of the comparison of missing data handling methods, forecast future broiler egg prices, and evaluate the results of forecasting. The data used is daily data on the price of broiler eggs in Bogor Regency / City in the period January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2023, as much as 1,826 data. The results of the comparison of missing data handling methods showed that the linear interpolation method is declared better with an accuracy value using MAPE of 0.005%. The results of forecasting the price of broiler eggs show that the forecasting results with the ARIMA (1,1,3) model follow the actual data pattern, with a MAPE accuracy value of 0.601%; it is stated that the forecasting performance has performed well. Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) Introduction Eggs are a very important source of animal protein and a staple for some people. The price of purebred chicken eggs in the Bogor Regency / City area tends to experience significant price changes. Based on information from the National Online Market Information System (2024) in 2019, the average price of purebred chicken eggs was recorded at Rp.24,091 per kilogram. In 2020, the average price of purebred chicken eggs increased to IDR 24,599 per kilogram, and this year, the price of purebred chicken eggs reached the lowest price in the last five years at IDR 14,000 per kilogram. In 2021, the average price of purebred chicken eggs fell to IDR 22,515 per kilogram. In 2022, the average price of purebred chicken eggs experienced a significant increase of IDR 26,619 per kilogram. In 2023, the average price of broiler eggs continued to increase to Rp. 28,400 per kilogram. This year, the price of broiler eggs also reached the highest price of Rp—32,000 per kilogram
Fakultas Matematika dan Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Pakuan
Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pnegetahuan Alam
Perbandingan Metode Penanganan Data Hilang Dan Peramalan Harga Telur Ayam Ras Dengan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Aeverage (Text)
Skripsi_Shelly Selgiant Dion__064120015_Matematika.pdf
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Matematika